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Global tourism set for full recovery by end of the year with spending growing faster than arrivals

Global tourism set for full recovery by end of the year with spending growing faster than arrivals

Around 1.1 billion tourists travelled internationally in the first nine months of 2024, as the global tourism sector recovered 98% of pre-pandemic levels. According to the latest World Tourism Barometer by UN Tourism, a full recovery from the biggest crisis in the sector’s history is expected by the end of the year, despite economic, geopolitical and climate challenges.

Four years after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, which brought global tourism to a standstill, the Barometer reflects the sector’s remarkable recovery, with most regions already exceeding 2019 arrival numbers in the period January to September 2024. The report also shows outstanding results in terms of international tourism receipts, with most destinations with available data posting double-digit growth compared to 2019.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The strong growth seen in tourism receipts is excellent news for economies around the world. The fact that visitor spending is growing even stronger than arrivals has a direct impact on millions of jobs and small businesses and contributes decisively to the balance of payments and tax revenues of many economies.”

The fact that visitor spending is growing even stronger than arrivals has a direct impact on millions of jobs and small businesses and contributes decisively to the balance of payments and tax revenues of many economies

Tourism performance by region

International tourist arrivals grew strongly in the first nine months of 2024, driven by strong post-pandemic demand in Europe and robust performance from large source markets globally, as well as the ongoing recovery of destinations in Asia and the Pacific. Increased air connectivity and visa facilitation also supported international travel.

  • The Middle East (+29% compared to 2019) continued to enjoy record growth this nine-month period, while Europe (+1%) and Africa (+6%) also exceeded 2019 levels.
  • The Americas recovered 97% of its pre-pandemic arrivals (-3% over 2019).
  • Asia and the Pacific reached 85% of 2019 levels as compared to a 66% recovery in 2023. Asia and the Pacific has experienced a gradual though uneven rebound in arrivals since the region reopened to international travel in 2023.   

The summer season in the Northern Hemisphere was generally strong, with arrivals worldwide reaching 99% of pre-pandemic values in Q3 2024.

A total of 60 out of 111 destinations surpassed 2019 arrival numbers in the first eight to nine months of 2024. Some of the strongest performers in arrivals during this period were Qatar (+141% versus 2019) where arrivals more than doubled, Albania (+77%), Saudi Arabia (+61%), Curaçao (+48%), Tanzania (+43%), Colombia and Andorra (both +36%).

Tourism receipts show extraordinary growth

A total of 35 out of 43 countries with available data on receipts exceeded pre-pandemic values in the first eight to nine months of 2024, many reporting double-digit growth compared to 2019 (in local currencies), well above inflation in most cases.

Among the best performers in terms of earnings were Serbia (+99%) where receipts almost doubled (compared to the same months of 2019), as well as Pakistan (+64%), Romania (+61%), Japan (+59%), Portugal (+51%), Nicaragua and Tanzania (both 50%).

Among the world’s top earners, Japan (+59%), Türkiye (+41%) and France (+27%) all recorded double-digit growth through September 2024. Spain (+36%) and Italy (+26%) also reported strong visitor receipts, through August. The United Kingdom recorded 43% higher earnings, Canada 35%, and Australia 18%, all through June 2024. As for the United States, the world’s top tourism earner, it reported 7% growth through September.

Data on international tourism expenditure reflects the same trend, especially among large source markets such as Germany (+35% compared to 2019), the United States (+33%) and France (+11%).

Strong expenditure growth was also reported by the United Kingdom (+46%) Australia (+34%), Canada (+28%) and Italy (+26%), all through June 2024. Available data for India shows a surge in outbound spending from this increasingly important market, with 81% growth through June 2024 (versus 2019).

On track for full recovery by the end of 2024

International tourist arrivals are expected to reach 2019 levels in 2024. International tourism receipts had already virtually achieved pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

While a large number of destinations already exceeded pre-pandemic arrival numbers in 2023, or have done so in 2024, there is still room for recovery across several subregions and destinations. A slower rebound in parts of North-East Asia and Central Eastern Europe contrasts with strong results in all other European subregions, the Middle East, Central America and the Caribbean, where arrivals have surpassed pre-pandemic values.

As in 2023, the year 2024 has seen strong export revenues from international tourism, due to higher average spending per trip (excluding the effects of inflation), partly the result of longer periods of stay.

Challenges remain

Despite the generally strong results, several economic, geopolitical and climate challenges remain. The tourism sector is still facing inflation in travel and tourism, namely high transport and accommodation prices, as well as volatile oil prices. Major conflicts and tensions around the world continue to impact consumer confidence, while extreme weather events and staff shortages are also critical challenges for tourism performance.  

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International Tourist Arrivals hit 96% of pre-pandemic levels through July 2024

International Tourist Arrivals hit 96% of pre-pandemic levels through July 2024

International tourism bounced back to 96% of pre-pandemic levels in the seven months through July 2024, driven by strong demand in Europe and the re-opening of markets in Asia and the Pacific.

According to the latest World Tourism Barometer by UN Tourism, around 790 million tourists travelled internationally in the first seven months of 2024, about 11% more than in 2023 and only 4% less than in 2019. Data show a strong start to the year, followed by a more modest second quarter. Results are in line with UN Tourism’s projection of a full recovery in international arrivals in 2024 despite ongoing economic and geopolitical risks.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “International tourism is on track to consolidate its full recovery from the biggest crisis in the sector’s history. The ongoing rebound comes despite a range of economic and geopolitical challenges, highlighting the strong demand for international travel as well as the effectiveness of boosting air connections and easing visa restrictions. This recovery also highlights the growing need for tourism planning and managing to cater for its impacts on communities in a way that the immense socio-economic benefits are paired with inclusive and sustainable policies”.

Middle East continues to lead the recovery

The ongoing rebound comes despite a range of economic and geopolitical challenges, highlighting the strong demand for international travel as well as the effectiveness of boosting air connections and easing visa restrictions

With increased air connectivity and visa facilitation supporting the recovery in international travel, the data shows all world regions have recorded a strong year so far.

  • The Middle East remained the strongest-growing region in relative terms, with international arrivals climbing 26% above 2019 levels in the first seven months of 2024.
  • Africa welcomed 7% more tourists than in the same months of 2019.
  • Europe and the Americas recovered 99% and 97% of their pre-pandemic arrivals respectively during these seven months.
  • Asia and the Pacific recorded 82% of its pre-pandemic tourist numbers (-18% versus 2019) reaching 85% in June and 86% in July.

A total of 67 out of 120 destinations around the world had recovered 2019 arrival numbers in the first half of 2024, based on countries reporting monthly or quarterly data. Some of the strongest performers in January-July 2024 were Qatar (+147% versus 2019) where arrivals more than doubled, Albania (+93%), El Salvador (+81%), Saudi Arabia (+73%), the Republic of Moldova (+50% through June) and Tanzania (+49% through June).

Receipts and expenditure data shows even stronger results 

Regarding international tourism receipts, 47 out of 63 countries with available data had recovered pre-pandemic values in the first six months of 2024, many reporting strong double-digit growth compared to 2019 (in local currencies and current prices). Among the best performers through June or July 2024 were Albania (+128%) and Serbia (+126%) where receipts more than doubled (compared to the same period of 2019), followed by Tajikistan (+85%), Pakistan (+76%), Montenegro (+70%), North Macedonia (+60%) and Portugal (+57%). Strong results were also reported by Türkiye (+55%) and Colombia (+54%). Worth noting based on first quarter data, are Saudi Arabia (+207%) and El Salvador (+168%) which enjoyed extraordinary growth compared to Q1 2019.

Data on international tourism expenditure reveals strong demand for outbound travel in January-July 2024, especially from large source markets such as the United States (+32%), Germany (+38%), and the United Kingdom (+40% through March), compared to the same period of 2019. Strong outbound spending was also reported by Australia (+34%), Canada (+28%) and Italy (+26%), all through June 2024. Limited data for India shows an impressive surge in outbound spending, with 86% growth in Q1 2024 (versus Q1 2019).

Revised data for 2023 shows export revenues from international tourism reaching USD 1.8 trillion (including receipts and passenger transport), virtually the same as before the pandemic (-1% in real terms compared to 2019). Tourism direct GDP also recovered pre-pandemic levels in 2023, reaching an estimated USD 3.4 trillion, equivalent to 3% of global GDP. In 2019 tourism directly contributed to 4% of global GDP.

Positive finish to 2024 expected though challenges remain

The UN Tourism Confidence Index shows positive expectations for the last part of the year, at 120 points for September-December 2024, though below the prospects for May-August, which stood at 130 (on a scale of 0 to 200, where 100 reflects equal expected performance). Some 47% of the tourism experts participating in the Confidence survey expect better performance for the sector in the last four months of 2024, while 41% project similar performance and 11% worse. This reflects a gradual normalization of tourism performance after a strong 2023.

Experts pointed to inflation in travel and tourism, namely high transport and accommodation prices, as the main challenge the tourism sector is currently facing, as well as the global economic situation, staff shortages and extreme weather events.

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International tourism reached 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024

International tourism reached 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024

International tourist arrivals reached 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024. According to UN Tourism, more than 285 million tourists travelled internationally in January-March, about 20% more than the first quarter of 2023, underscoring the sector’s near-complete recovery from the impacts of the pandemic.

In 2023 international tourist arrivals recovered 89% of 2019 levels and export revenues from tourism 96%, while direct tourism GDP reached the same levels as in 2019.

UN Tourism’s projection for 2024 points to a full recovery of international tourism with arrivals growing 2% above 2019 levels. In line with this, the newest data released by the UN specialized agency for tourism show that:

Yet it also recalls the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management, aiming to advance sustainability and inclusion, while addressing the externalities and impact of the sector on resources and communities

  • The Middle East saw the strongest relative growth, with international arrivals exceeding by 36% pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2024, or 4% above Q1 2023. This follows an extraordinary performance in 2023, when the Middle East became the first world region to recover pre-pandemic numbers (+22%).  
  • Europe, the world's largest destination region, exceeded pre-pandemic levels in a quarter for the first time (+1% from Q1 2019). The region recorded 120 million international tourists in the first three months of the year, backed by robust intra-regional demand.
  • Africa welcomed 5% more arrivals in the first quarter of 2024 than in Q1 2019, and 13% more than in Q1 2023.
  • The Americas practically recovered pre-pandemic numbers this first quarter, with arrivals reaching 99% of 2019 levels.
  • International tourism is experiencing a rapid recovery in Asia and the Pacific where arrivals reached 82% of pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2024, after recovering 65% in the year 2023.

UN Tourism Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "The recovery of the sector is very welcome news for our economies and the livelihoods of millions. Yet it also recalls the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management, aiming to advance sustainability and inclusion, while addressing the externalities and impact of the sector on resources and communities".

By subregions, North Africa saw the strongest performance in Q1 2024 with 23% more international arrivals than before the pandemic, followed by Central America (+15%), the Caribbean and Western Europe (both +7%). Southern Mediterranean Europe exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 1%, while South America virtually reached 2019 levels.  Northern Europe recovered 98% of pre-pandemic levels, while Subsaharan Africa and North America both recovered 95%.

According to available data, many destinations across the world continued to achieve strong results in Q1 2024, including Qatar (+177% versus Q1 2019), Albania (+121%), Saudi Arabia (+98%), El Salvador (+90%), Tanzania (+53%), Curaçao (+45%), Serbia (+43%), Turks and Caicos (+42%), Guatemala (+41%) and Bulgaria (+38%).

The robust performance of international tourism can also be seen in the UN Tourism Confidence Index which reached 130 points (on a scale of 0 to 200) for the period January-April, above the expectations (122) expressed for this period in mid-January.

Receipts

International tourism receipts reached USD 1.5 trillion in 2023, meaning a complete recovery of pre-pandemic levels in nominal terms, but 97% in real terms, adjusting for inflation.

By regions, Europe generated the highest receipts in 2023, with destinations earning USD 660 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 7% in real terms. Receipts in the Middle East climbed 33% above 2019 levels. The Americas recovered 96% of its pre-pandemic earnings in 2023 and Africa 95%. Asia and the Pacific earned 78% of its pre-crisis receipts, a remarkable result when compared to its 65% recovery in arrivals last year.

Total export revenues from international tourism, including both receipts and passenger transport, reached USD 1.7 trillion in 2023, about 96% of pre-pandemic levels in real terms. Tourism direct GDP recovered pre-pandemic levels, reaching an estimated USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 3% of global GDP.

Several destinations achieved remarkable results in terms of receipts in the first quarter of 2024 as compared to 2019 levels based on available data, including Serbia (+127%), Türkiye (+82%), Pakistan (+72%), Tanzania (+62%), Portugal (+61%), Romania (+57%), Japan (+53%), Mongolia (+50%), Mauritius (+46%) and Morocco (+44%).

Looking ahead to a full recovery globally in 2024

International tourism is expected to recover completely in 2024 backed by strong demand, enhanced air connectivity and the continued recovery of China and other major Asian markets.

The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index shows positive prospects for the upcoming summer season, with a score of 130 for the period May-August 2024 (on a scale of 0 to 200), reflecting more upbeat sentiment than earlier this year. Some 62% of tourism experts participating in the Confidence survey expressed better (53%) or much better (9%) expectations for this 4-month period, covering the Northern Hemisphere summer season, while 31% foresee similar performance as in 2023.  

Challenges remain

According to the UN Tourism Panel of Experts, economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to international tourism and confidence levels.

IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (April 2024) points to a steady but slow economic recovery, though mixed by region. At the same time, persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade continue to translate into high transport and accommodations costs.

Tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to elevated prices and the overall economic challenges, while extreme temperatures and other weather events could impact the destination choice of many travellers. This is increasingly mentioned by the UN Tourism Panel of Experts as a concern for the sector.

Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel conflict and other mounting geopolitical tensions, are also important downside risks for international tourism.

As international tourism continues to recover and expand, fuelling economic growth and employment around the world, governments will need to continue adapting and enhancing their management of tourism at the national and local level to ensure communities and residents are at the center of this development.

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International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

International Tourism to Reach Pre-Pandemic Levels in 2024

Following a strong 2023, international tourism is well on track to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levels, with an estimated 1.3 billion international arrivals. The unleashing of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity, and a stronger recovery of Asian markets and destinations, are expected to underpin a full recovery by the end of 2024.

Middle East, Europe and Africa performed strongest in 2023

The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provides a comprehensive overview of the sector's performance in 2023, tracking recovery by global region, sub-region and destination. Key takeaways include:

  • The Middle East led recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% above 2019.
  • Europe, the world's most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
  • Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.
  • Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance is mixed, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and North-East Asia around 55%. 

International Tourist Arrivals (% change over 2019)

Available data shows several destinations, including both large, established destinations as well as small and emerging ones, reporting double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 when compared to 2019. Four sub-regions exceeded their 2019 arrival levels: Southern Mediterranean Europe, Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "The latest UNWTO data underscores tourism's resilience and rapid recovery, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024. The rebound is already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These numbers also recall the critical task of progressing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development"

International tourism hit US$1.4 trillion in 2023

The latest UNWTO data also highlights the economic impact of recovery.

  • International tourism receipts reached USD 1.4 trillion in 2023 according to preliminary estimates, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
  • Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at USD 1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the USD 1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
  • Preliminary estimates on the economic contribution of tourism, measured in tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP) point to USD 3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery of pre-pandemic TDGDP driven by strong domestic and international tourism.

Several destinations reported strong growth in international tourism receipts during the first ten to twelve months of 2023, exceeding in some cases growth in arrivals. Strong demand for outbound travel was also reported by several large source markets this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels.

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand recovered about 90% of pre-pandemic levels through October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates in accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).

Looking Ahead to 2024

International tourism is expected to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with initial estimates pointing to 2% growth above 2019 levels. This central forecast by UNWTO remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.  

The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating better or much better prospects for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be worse than last year. Key considerations include:

  • There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of several source markets and destinations will boost recovery in the region and globally.
  • Chinese outbound and inbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, due to visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China is applying visa-free travel for citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for a year to 30 November 2024.
  • Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel in Kenya and Rwanda.
  • Europe is expected to drive results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen area of free movement, and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
  • Strong travel from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East, will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
  • Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustained recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persisting inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and disruptions to trade can continue to impact transport and accommodations costs in 2024.
  • Against this backdrop, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice. 
  • Staff shortages remain a critical issue, as tourism businesses face a shortfall in labor to cope with high demand.
  • The evolution of the Hamas-Israel conflict may disrupt travel in the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other mounting geopolitical tensions, continue to weigh on confidence.
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International Tourism to End 2023 Close to 90% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

International Tourism to End 2023 Close to 90% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

International tourism is on track to recover almost 90% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year. According to the latest data from the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), an estimated 975 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September 2023, an increase of 38% on the same months of 2022.

The newest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer also shows:

  • World destinations welcomed 22% more international tourists in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the same period last year, reflecting a strong Northern Hemisphere summer season.
  • International tourist arrivals hit 91% of pre-pandemic levels in the third quarter, reaching 92% in July, the best month so far since the start of pandemic.
  • Overall, tourism recovered 87% of pre-pandemic levels in January-September 2023. That puts the sector on course to recover almost 90% by the end of the year.
  • International tourism receipts could reach USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, about 93% of the USD 1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.

The latest UNWTO data shows that international tourism has almost completely recovered from the unprecedented crisis of COVID-19 with many destinations reaching or even exceeding pre-pandemic arrivals and receipts

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "The latest UNWTO data shows that international tourism has almost completely recovered from the unprecedented crisis of COVID-19 with many destinations reaching or even exceeding pre-pandemic arrivals and receipts. This is critical for destinations, businesses, and communities where the sector is a major lifeline. "

The Middle East, Europe and Africa lead recovery

  • The Middle East continues to lead the recovery by regions in relative terms, with arrivals 20% above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months through September 2023. The Middle East remains the only world region to surpass 2019 levels this period. Visa facilitation measures, the development of new destinations, investments in new tourism-related projects and the hosting of large events, help underpin this remarkable performance.
  • Europe, the world's largest destination region, welcomed 550 million international tourists over the period, 56% of the global total. That represents 94% of pre-pandemic levels. The rebound was supported by robust intra-regional demand as well as strong demand from the United States.
  • Africa recovered 92% of pre-pandemic visitors this nine-month period,  and arrivals in the Americas reached 88% of 2019 numbers this period, as the region benefitted from strong US demand, in particular to Caribbean destinations.
  • Asia and the Pacific reached 62% of pre-pandemic levels this period due to slower reopening to international travel. However, performance among subregions is mixed, with South Asia recovering 95% of pre-pandemic levels but North-East Asia only about 50%.

International tourist arrivals (% change vs. 2019)

The World Tourism Barometer includes more focused data on regions, as well as sub-regions and individual destinations.

Tourism spending strong

Strong demand for outbound travel was reported by several large source markets this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels. Germany and the United States spent 13% and 11% more respectively on outbound travel than in the same nine months of 2019, while Italy spent 16% more through August.

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. Drawing on data from IATA (the International Air Transport Association) and STR, the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker details a strong recovery in air passenger numbers and tourist accommodation occupancy levels.

Against this backdrop, international tourism is well on track to fully recover pre-pandemic levels in 2024 despite economic challenges such as high inflation and weaker global output, as well as important geopolitical tensions and conflicts.

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Tourism’s Importance for Growth Highlighted in World Economic Outlook Report

Tourism’s Importance for Growth Highlighted in World Economic Outlook Report

Tourism has again been identified as a key driver of economic recovery and growth in a new report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). With UNWTO data pointing to a return to 95% of pre-pandemic tourist numbers by the end of the year in the best case scenario, the IMF report outlines the positive impact the sector’s rapid recovery will have on certain economies worldwide.

According to the World Economic Outlook (WEO) Report, the global economy will grow an estimated 3.0% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024. While this is higher than previous forecasts, it is nevertheless below the 3.5% rate of growth recorded in 2022, pointing to the continued impacts of the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and from the cost-of-living crisis.

Tourism key sector for growth

The WEO report analyses economic growth in every global region, connecting performance with key sectors, including tourism. Notably, those economies with "large travel and tourism sectors" show strong economic resilience and robust levels of economic activity. More specifically, countries where tourism represents a high percentage of GDP   have recorded faster recovery from the impacts of the pandemic in comparison to economies where tourism is not a significant sector.

As the report Foreword notes: "Strong demand for services has supported service-oriented economies—including important tourism destinations such as France and Spain".

Looking Ahead

The latest outlook from the IMF comes on the back of UNWTO's most recent analysis of the prospects for tourism, at the global and regional levels. Pending the release of the November 2023 World Tourism Barometer, international tourism is on track to reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Prospects for September-December 2023 point to continued recovery, driven by the still pent-up demand and increased air connectivity particularly in Asia and the Pacific where recovery is still subdued.

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International Tourism Swiftly Overcoming Pandemic Downturn

International Tourism Swiftly Overcoming Pandemic Downturn

International tourism has continued to recover from the worst crisis in its history as arrival numbers reached 84% of pre-pandemic levels between January and July 2023, according to the latest data from UNWTO. The Middle East, Europe and Africa lead the global sector's rebound.

Tourism on Track for Full Recovery

Tourism demand continues to show remarkable resilience and sustained recovery, even in the face of economic and geopolitical challenges. The new issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer tracks the sector's recovery over the course of 2023 up to the end of July. The UNWTO Barometer shows:

  • By the end of July, international tourist arrivals reached 84% of pre-pandemic levels.
  • 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and July 2023, 43% more than in the same months of 2022.
  • July was the busiest month with 145 million international travellers recorded, about 20% of the seven-month total.

UNWTO data once again shows how tourism is recovering strongly in every part of the world. But as our sector recovers, it also needs to adapt

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "UNWTO data once again shows how tourism is recovering strongly in every part of the world. But as our sector recovers, it also needs to adapt. The extreme weather events we have witnessed over recent months as well as the critical challenges of managing increasing tourism flows underline the need to build a more inclusive, sustainable and resilient sector and ensure recovery goes hand-in-hand with rethinking of our sector."

Results by Region

All world regions enjoyed strong rates of tourism recovery over the first seven months of 2023, driven by demand for international travel from several large source markets:

  • The Middle East reported the best results in January-July 2023, with arrivals 20% above pre-pandemic levels. The region continues to be the only to exceed 2019 levels so far.
  • Europe, the world's largest destination region, reached 91% of pre-pandemic levels, supported by robust intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
  • Africa recovered 92% of pre-crisis visitors this seven-month period and the Americas 87% according to available data.
  • In Asia and the Pacific, recovery accelerated to 61% of pre-pandemic arrival levels after the opening of many destinations and source markets at the end of 2022 and earlier this year.

The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer contains results by region, sub-region and country, including best-performing destinations in terms of international arrivals and  receipts over the first seven months of the year.

International tourist arrivals (% change versus 2019)

 

Looking ahead

These results show international tourism remains well on track to reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Prospects for September-December 2023 point to continued recovery, according to the latest UNWTO Confidence Index, though at a more moderate pace following the peak travel season of June-August. These results will be driven by the still pent-up demand and increased air connectivity particularly in Asia and the Pacific where recovery is still subdued.

  • The reopening of China and other Asian markets and destinations is expected to continue boosting travel both within the region and to other parts of the world.
  • The challenging economic environment continues to be a critical factor in the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, according to UNWTO's Panel of Experts.

Persisting inflation and rising oil prices have translated into higher transport and accommodations costs. This could weigh on spending patterns over the remainder of the year, with tourists increasingly seeking value for money, travelling closer to home and  making shorter trips.

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Tourism on Track for Full Recovery as New Data Shows Strong Start to 2023

Tourism on Track for Full Recovery as New Data Shows Strong Start to 2023

International tourism is well on its way to returning to pre-pandemic levels, with twice as many people travelling during the first quarter of 2023 than in the same period of 2022.

New Data from UNWTO: What We've Learned

The second UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year shows that the sector's swift recovery has continued into 2023. It shows that:

  • Overall, international arrivals reached 80% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2023
  • An estimated 235 million tourists travelled internationally in the first three months, more than double the same period of 2022.
  • Tourism has continued to show its resilience. Revised data for 2022 shows over 960 million tourists travelling internationally last year, meaning two-thirds (66%) of pre-pandemic numbers were recovered.

Recovery by Region in Q1 2023:

  • The Middle East saw the strongest performance as the only region exceeding 2019 arrivals (+15%) and the first to recover pre-pandemic numbers in a full quarter.
  • Europe reached 90% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by strong intra-regional demand.
  • Africa reached 88% and the Americas about 85% of 2019 levels
  • Asia and the Pacific accelerated its recovery with  54% of pre-pandemic levels, but this upward trend is set to accelerate now that most destinations, particularly China, have re-opened.

In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals

The UNWTO data also analyses recovery by sub-region and by destination: Southern Mediterranean Europe and North Africa have also recovered pre-pandemic levels in Q1 2023, while Western Europe, Northern Europe, Central America and the Caribbean all came close to reaching those levels.

What it Means:

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili says: "The start of the year has shown again tourism's unique ability to bounce back. In many places, we are close to or even above pre-pandemic levels of arrivals. However, we must remain alert to challenges ranging from geopolitical insecurity, staffing shortages, and the potential impact of the cost-of-living crisis on tourism, and we must ensure tourism's return delivers on its responsibilities as a solution to the climate emergency and as a driver of inclusive development."

International tourism receipts grew back to hit the USD1 trillion mark in 2022, growing 50% in real terms compared to 2021, driven by the important rebound in international travel. International visitor spending reached 64% of pre-pandemic levels (-36% compared to 2019, measured in real terms). By regions, Europe enjoyed the best results in 2022 with nearly USD 550 billion in tourism receipts (EUR 520 billion), or 87% of pre-pandemic levels. Africa recovered 75% of its pre-pandemic receipts, the Middle East 70% and the Americas 68%. Due to prolonged border shutdowns, Asian destinations earned about 28%.

International tourism receipts:
Percentage of 2019 levels recovered in 2022(%)*

International tourist arrivals:
Percentage of 2019 levels recovered in Q1 2023 (%)*

Looking Ahead: What's in Store?

The Q1 2023 results are in line with UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for the year which project international arrivals to recover 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels. UNWTO's Panel of Experts expressed their confidence in a strong peak season (May-August) in the Northern Hemisphere, reflected in the latest UNWTO Confidence Index which indicates performance for the period is on track to be even better than 2022.

However, tourism's recovery also faces some challenges.  According to the UNWTO Panel of Experts, the economic situation remains the main factor weighing on the effective recovery of international tourism in 2023, with high inflation and rising oil prices translating into higher transport and accommodations costs.  As a result, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Uncertainty derived from the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, also continue to represent downside risks.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

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Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Regions in 2023

Tourism Set to Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels in Some Regions in 2023

After stronger than expected recovery in 2022, this year could see international tourist arrivals return to pre-pandemic levels in Europe and the Middle East. Tourists are nonetheless expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to the challenging economic climate.

Based on UNWTO's forward-looking scenarios for 2023, international tourist arrivals could reach 80% to 95% of pre-pandemic levels this year, depending on the extent of the economic slowdown, the ongoing recovery of travel in Asia and the Pacific and the evolution of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, among other factors.

All regions bouncing back

UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty

According to new data UNWTO, more than 900 million tourists travelled internationally in 2022 – double the number recorded in 2021 though still 63% of pre-pandemic levels. Every global region recorded notable increases in international tourist numbers. The Middle East enjoyed the strongest relative increase as arrivals climbed to 83% of pre-pandemic numbers. Europe reached nearly 80% of pre-pandemic levels as it welcomed 585 million arrivals in 2022. Africa and the Americas both recovered about 65% of their pre-pandemic visitors, while Asia and the Pacific reached only 23%, due to stronger pandemic-related restrictions which have started to be removed only in recent months. The first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of 2023 also analyses performance by region and looks at top performers in 2022, including several destinations which have already recovered 2019 levels.

International Tourist Arrivals, World and Regions

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: "A new year brings more reason for optimism for global tourism. UNWTO anticipates a strong year for the sector even in the face of diverse challenges including the economic situation and continued geopolitical uncertainty. Economic factors may influence how people travel in 2023 and UNWTO expects demand for domestic and regional travel to remain strong and help drive the sector's wider recovery."

Chinese tourists set to return

UNWTO foresees the recovery to continue throughout 2023 even as the sector faces up to economic, health and geopolitical challenges. The recent lifting of COVID-19 related travel restrictions in China, the world's largest outbound market in 2019, is a significant step for the recovery of the tourism sector in Asia and the Pacific and worldwide. In the short term, the resumption of travel from China is likely to benefit Asian destinations in particular. However, this will be shaped by the availability and cost of air travel, visa regulations and COVID-19 related restrictions in the destinations.  By mid-January a total of 32 countries had imposed specific travel restrictions related to travel from China, mostly in Asia and Europe.

At the same time, strong demand from the United States, backed by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the region and beyond. Europe will continue to enjoy strong travel flows from the US, partly due to a weaker euro versus the US dollar. 

Notable increases in international tourism receipts have been recorded across most destinations, in several cases higher than their growth in arrivals. This has been supported by the increase in average spending per trip due to longer periods of stay, the willingness by travelers to spend more in their destination and higher travel costs due to inflation. However, economic situation could translate into tourists adopting a more cautious attitude in 2023, with reduced spending, shorter trips and travel closer to home.  

Furthermore, continued uncertainty caused by the Russian aggression against Ukraine and other mounting geopolitical tensions, as well as health challenges related to COVID-19 also represent downside risks and could weigh on tourism's recovery in the months ahead.

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows cautious optimism for January-April, higher than the same period in 2022. This optimism is backed by the opening up in Asia and strong spending numbers in 2022 from both traditional and emerging tourism source markets, with France, Germany and Italy as well as Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia all posting strong results.

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Tourism Recovery Accelerates to Reach 65% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

Tourism Recovery Accelerates to Reach 65% of Pre-Pandemic Levels

International tourism is on track to reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2022 as the sector continues to bounce back from the pandemic.

An estimated 700 million tourists travelled internationally between January and September, more than double (+133%) the number recorded for the same period in 2021. This equates to 63% of 2019 levels and puts the sector on course to reach 65% of its pre-pandemic levels this year, in line with UNWTO scenarios. Results were boosted by strong pent-up demand, improved confidence levels and the lifting of restrictions in an increasing number of destinations.

Highlighting the speed at which the sector has recovered from the worst crisis in its history, the latest World Tourism Barometer from UNWTO reveals that monthly arrivals were 64% below 2019 levels in January 2022 and had reached -27% by September. An estimated 340 million international arrivals were recorded in the third quarter of 2022 alone, almost 50% of the nine-month total.

Europe continues to lead global recovery

Europe continues to lead the rebound of international tourism. The region welcomed 477 million international arrivals in January-September 2022 (68% of the world total), hitting 81% of pre-pandemic levels. This was more than double that of 2021 (+126%) with results boosted by strong intra-regional demand and travel from the United States. Europe saw particularly robust performance in Q3, when arrivals reached almost 90% of 2019 levels.

At the same time, the Middle East saw international arrivals more than triple (+225%) year on year in January-September 2022, climbing to 77% of pre-pandemic levels.. Africa (+166%) and the Americas (+106%) also recorded strong growth compared to 2021, reaching 63% and 66% of 2019 levels, respectively. In Asia and the Pacific (+230%) arrivals more than tripled in the first nine months of 2022, reflecting the opening of many destinations, including Japan at the end of September. However, arrivals in Asia and the Pacific remained 83% below 2019 levels. China, a key source market for the region, remains closed.

Arrivals and receipts at – or above – pre-pandemic levels

Several subregions reached 80% to 90% of their pre-pandemic arrivals in January-September 2022. Western Europe (88%) and Southern Mediterranean Europe (86%) saw the fastest recovery towards 2019 levels. The Caribbean, Central America (both 82%) and Northern Europe (81%) also recorded strong results. Destinations reporting arrivals above pre-pandemic levels in the nine months through September include Albania, Ethiopia, Honduras, Andorra, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Colombia, El Salvador and Iceland.

In the month of September arrivals surpassed pre-pandemic levels in the Middle East (+3% over 2019) and the Caribbean (+1%) and came close in Central America (-7%), Northern Europe (-9%) and Southern and Mediterranean Europe (-10%).

Meanwhile, some destinations recorded notable increases in international tourism receipts in the first seven to nine months of 2022, including Serbia, Romania, Türkiye, Latvia, Portugal, Pakistan, Mexico, Morocco and France. The recovery can also be seen in outbound tourism spending from major source markets, with strong results from France where expenditure reached -8% through September, compared to 2019. Other markets reporting strong spending in the first six to nine months of 2022 were Germany, Belgium, Italy, the United States, Qatar, India and Saudi Arabia.  

Strong demand for air travel and hotel accommodation

The robust recovery of tourism is also reflected in various industry indicators such as air capacity and hotel metrics, as recorded in the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker. Air seat capacity on international routes (measured in available seat-kilometres or ASKs) in January-August reached 62% of 2019 levels, with Europe (78%) and the Americas (76%) posting the strongest results. Worldwide domestic capacity rose to 86% of 2019 levels, with the Middle East (99%) virtually achieving pre-pandemic levels (IATA).

Meanwhile, according to STR, global hotel occupancy rates reached 66% in September 2022, from 43% in January. Europe led the way with occupancy levels at 77% in September 2022, following rates of 74% in July and August. The Americas (66%), the Middle East (63%) and Africa (61%) all saw occupancy rates above 60% in September. By subregion, Southern Mediterranean Europe (79%), Western Europe (75%) and Oceania (70%) showed the highest occupancy rates in September 2022.

Cautious optimism for the months ahead

The challenging economic environment, including persistently high inflation and soaring energy prices, aggravated by the Russian offensive in Ukraine, could weigh on the pace of recovery in Q4 and into 2023. The latest survey among the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts shows a downgrade in confidence levels for the last four months of 2022, reflecting more cautious optimism. Despite growing challenges pointing to a softening of the recovery pace, export revenues from tourism could reach USD 1.2 to 1.3 trillion in 2022, a 60-70% increase over 2021, or 70-80% of the USD 1.8 trillion recorded in 2019.

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